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Monkier, all is forgiven regarding your calculations. Lack of sleep has definitely contributed to many bad calculations for myself. However, I still stick to the impossible story. Let's assume that I lost 15 in a row then won, then 15 more losses and then won and then 17 more losses. At 3-1 odds for me to win each hand even losing 15 in a row is on par with winning 6/49 lottery. I would then have to win the 6/49 two more times in a row.
Take 3 cards (say Q K A) and mix them up. Try to pick the Ace every time. You may get it two or three times in a row. Perhaps even 5 or 6 times in a row and if you are extremely lucky maybe 7 or 8 times but that is it. And as for each draw being mutually exclusive that's true but it doesn't change the odds overall as every mutually exclusive event has to be achieved to make up the whole and these events have to be done in an exact order. Not even one of the events can be changed or the whole is lost. In 6/49, after the first ball is drawn, and you have that number it makes sense that you now have a better chance of winning as you only need 5 more numbers but that doesn't change your overall odds. Its still approx 1 in 14 million. 1 in 14 million is not impossible but doing it 3 times in a row is. Or look at it as you having to walk a mile. After you have walked 400 meters, you only have 1600 meters to go. That's less than a mile. But in the end you have still walked a mile. |
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Monkier, thank you for letting everyone know that some of the calculations were based on your assumptions. Some of these people have come in part way through the posts and don't know the whole story. I guess the person calling me a liar is basing that characterization on some incorrect facts.
I'm not trying to stir the pot. I have no motive to lie. I had played many hands and watched many hands and it appeared to me that the bad beats were happening way to often. So I kept track of my stats for a period of time. I didn't know how long I would do this but I finally stopped at the 50 hands I talk about (it is a pain in the butt to do this). The reason I got so upset with PKR is that after asking them about my stats their response was that "it takes 10,000 hands" to see true results. My side is that a million more hands could not equal things out. I'm not saying PKR is out to get me or anybody else but I do believe there is a reason why their are so many bad beats. Could be faulty program or it could be marketing ploy, or something else. I do know though that something is not right. |
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I would agree on the 10,000 under normal circumstances but if after 50 hands an impossibility happens then no way. Based on what's happened I could play over a million more hands and odds would never work out or even come close. It reminds me of the movie Casino when a gaming official's brother in law is in charge of the slots and someone wins the jackpot 3 times at a million to one on each pull. It doesn't take a million pulls to figure out that the game was rigged.
These stats were taken playing sit and goes for play money. There are many reasons why it would be beneficial for PKR to have this happen. One reason could be that PKR wants all people to have equal wins. This would make it more likely that they would soon play for real money. For those who have played real money and lost and are then back to play money to practice having them win would give them the confidence to go back to real money. I'm not saying these are the reasons but they are possibilities. By the way, I do win at play money poker. I am not bitter because of losing all my money. I am actually quite successful at it. In live games I am very successful too. I don't play for big bucks and play only small tournaments but I win more than my fair share. |
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3 types of understood impossible:
Logically impossible. Defies the 3 laws: The law of noncontradiction, the law of identity , and the law of excluded middle. Physically impossible. Defies the laws of Newtonian physics. Technologically impossible. Unable to be performed with the current technology possessed by man. Your situation defies none of these laws. Thus, it is not impossible. Have a good day. |
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Ass3 and Kingbora,
I guess you're right. I could win the Lotto 649 jackpot 3 times in a row...........and be the only survivor of World War 3 because I was blown up to the moon while wearing a spacesuit and then was able to hitch a ride with an empty passing spaceship.......and |
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Ok, away from the "Hands are fixed discussion" !!!
Can anybody tell me why PKR software is the worst ive ever seen ?? I created account and for 3 days couldnt see any rooms to play in for Play money or Real money. So when it does come up i make a deposit, then i dont get my bonus. Contact CS and that is sorted out (Whooooop). Sop i have my real money and want to play, can i see a room ??? CAN I HECK !!! Then when a room list comes up after 20 mins of waiting, its a room list from 20 mins ago. Every table i join is full or even worse, full and players already out !!!! This has to be the worst software ive ever experienced while playing poker, and before you say anything ive been playing poker online since 2002. Im sitting in a torney and i get disconnected !!! Nothing strange there i hear u cry. YES THERE IS, there is nothing wrong with my internet, all websites work fin, visit many fav's amd every1 loads. So why the disconnect ?? Im sick to the back teeth of contacting CS, sort the software out or im off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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