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__________________
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You have 12 outs to the hand you are drawing to (notice I am not saying the nuts, but your money is going in if you hit one of them, which shows that you are willing to do so by the call). You are at least a coinflip to win, if not a small favorite. By raising, you put pressure on him. He can still fold. If he calls, you still have a solid chance to win. I press it all day long.
"Well on this occasion" That phrase never determines the correct play. Whether or not a hand is made does not prove a fold or call is best. What determines this is pot odds vs win probability. Just because it didnt hit this time does not mean that a fold was the best play. |
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I have to agree with Borgo on this hand, I would have raised to $700-$900 and put the pressure on him.
__________________
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I agree, I would have raised.
He's bet out representing the hand. You don't know where you are at all and a raise would certainly give you a good idea. You said you called and also called the turn so you if you are willing to do that, why not raise here with that 500? It wouldn't have cost you any more than you bet because a few things would happen. He could fold and you take it down right now. He could cold call meaning he could be chasing himself. He could re-raise and you would know exactly where you were and fold off. If he did just call your raise with a chasing hand, there is every chance he would check the turn and you'd see the river for free. If he called your raise and bet the turn, you're probably beat so it's a fold. You had position - so make use of it when you can |
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The problem I have with this hand and the reason I was cautious and just called it, was because my cards are so low, even if I hit the flush It's a really crappy flush and there's a chance he's got a higher one. Also the board is paired which gives him a shot at the Full House.
As for pot odds, surely I don't have them? By calling his $200 I'm betting $200 into a $450 pot so I'm betting 2/1 with a 3/1 (roughly) chance, am I completely wrong? I think I would be more likely to fold than re-raise this. A re-raise here would be leaning toward loose-aggresive play. |
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